The timing and intensity of column collapse during explosive volcanic eruptions

Volcanic columns produced by explosive eruptions commonly reach, at some stage, a collapse regime with associated pyroclastic density currents propagating on the ground. The threshold conditions for the entrance into this regime are mainly controlled by the mass flux and exsolved gas content at the source. However, column collapse is often partial and the controls on the fraction of total mass flux that feeds the pyroclastic density currents, defined here as the intensity of collapse, are unknown. To better understand this regime, we use a new experimental apparatus reproducing at laboratory scale the convecting and collapsing behavior of hot particle-laden air jets. We validate the predictions of a 1D theoretical model for the entrance into the regime of partial collapse. Furthermore, we show that where a buoyant plume and a collapsing fountain coexist, the intensity of collapse can be predicted by a universal scaling relationship. We find that the intensity of collapse in the partial collapse regime is controlled by magma gas content and temperature, and always exceeds 40%, independent of peak mass flux and total erupted volume. The comparison between our theoretical predictions and a set of geological data on historic and pre-historic explosive eruptions shows that the model can be used to predict both the onset and intensity of column collapse, hence it can be used for rapid assessment of volcanic hazards notably ash dispersal during eruptive crises.