Geomorphological response of the East Frisian barrier islands to sea-level rise: an investigation of past and future evolution

Post-glacial sea-level rise has resulted in shoreline erosion in many places. Sandy barrier islands migrate in a landward direction in order to compensate for the rise in sea-level. Several models for the possible response of the East Frisian barrier islands and tidal flats to the Holocene sea-level rise are summarized. The historical morphological development of the region has been influenced by a sea-level rise of ca. 0.25 m per century. In the future, sea-level rise — especially if sea-level rise is accelerated in response to human influences — will change the morphology of this coastal zone. Several developmental models are considered which predict the geomorphological response of the East Frisian coastal zone to sea-level rise. Four possible scenarios are conceivable depending on island width, back-barrier lagoon area and human protection measures.