Logistic analysis of channel pattern thresholds: meandering, braiding, and incising

A large and geographically diverse data set consisting of meandering, braiding, incising, and post-incision equilibrium streams was used in conjunction with logistic regression analysis to develop a probabilistic approach to predicting thresholds of channel pattern and instability. An energy-based index was developed for estimating the risk of channel instability associated with specific stream power relative to sedimentary characteristics. The strong significance of the 74 statistical models examined suggests that logistic regression analysis is an appropriate and effective technique for associating basic hydraulic data with various channel forms. The probabilistic diagrams resulting from these analyses depict a more realistic assessment of the uncertainty associated with previously identified thresholds of channel form and instability and provide a means of gauging channel sensitivity to changes in controlling variables.