Geomorphic context of channel locational probabilities along the Lower Mississippi River, USA

Channel change is an important aspect of geomorphological evolution and habitat dynamics in large alluvial rivers. Planimetric maps of channel locations were used to investigate spatio-temporal alluvial channel changes in a geomorphic context along the Lower Mississippi River (LMR). Analyses were conducted with the aid of a time-weighted locational probability map. The locational probability map was constructed in ArcGIS and covered a period of 205 years. An examination of the pixel data from the probability maps indicates a high occurrence of low probability pixels along the Lower Mississippi River, which is in accordance with the dynamism of alluvial rivers. The northern section of the Lower Mississippi River (Columbus, KY to Memphis, TN) has been much more stable than the southern river segments (Helena, AR to Natchez, MS). Areas of high channel probability (channel stability) were often associated with alluvial channel confinement from a combination of flood-plain deposits, geologic structures and large stable islands. Low channel probability locations were found along sections exhibiting the following geomorphic characteristics: changes in meander amplitude, meander neck and chute cutoffs, meander extensional processes and islands lost in channel migrational processes. The results provide a strong foundation for understanding channel change on the Lower Mississippi River and serves as a valuable instrument for future management and restoration schemes.