Using dynamic modelling to simulate the distribution of rockglaciers

Rockglaciers — permafrost creep features on mountain slopes — are common landforms in high mountain areas. The present contribution reports about the exploration of a dynamic modelling approach using cellular automata to assess their regional distribution patterns. The designed prototype model allows the numerical simulation of the spatial and temporal occurrence of talus-derived rockglaciers in the Upper Engadine (eastern Swiss Alps) during the Holocene. The dynamic model considers processes in the spatial and temporal domain and accounts for both external and internal processes, implemented by means of six modules (A to G). The external processes are: (A) rock-debris accumulation, (B) hydrology, (C) climate, (D) glacier extent. The internal processes are: (E) creep initiation, (F) advance rate, (G) creep termination. Comparison between field evidence and modelling results shows that the dynamic model enables the simulation of spatio-temporal creep processes on a regional scale, but that the model is highly dependent on the accurate modelling of the relevant (input) parameters. These deficiencies have been recognized and analyzed, and it is planned that future research activities will address these issues.