Enhanced probabilistic decision analysis for radiological confinement barriers of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor

To ensure a defence-in-depth approach, several radiological confinement barriers surrounding a tokamak plant can be employed. A methodology using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques is a useful tool for evaluating the performance of each confinement barrier within the context of a limited allowable risk of accidental radioactivity releases. Such a methodology was developed and applied to the confinement strategy for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER). Accident sequence models were constructed for each of the confinement barriers to evaluate the probabilities of events leading to radioactive releases from the corresponding confinement barrier. The current ITER design requirements set radioactive release and dose limits for individual event sequences grouped in categories by frequency. To limit the plantʹs overall risk and account for event uncertainties in both frequency and consequence, an analytical form for a limit line is derived here as a complementary cumulative frequency (CCF) of radioactive releases to the environment. By comparing the releases from each confinement barrier against the limit line, a decision can be made about the number of barriers required to comply with the design requirements. The first barrier is the vacuum vessel (VV) and the primary heat transfer systems. The second confinement barrier consists of the cryostat vessel (CV) and the heat transfer system vaults. In case the outer building is needed to act as a third barrier for ITER, a decision model using the multi-attribute utility theory was constructed to help the designer choose the best type of tokamak building. The decision model allows for performing sensitivity analysis on relevant parameters and for design features of new options for the ITER tokamak building.