Author/Authors :
Mirahmadizadeh Alireza نويسنده Epidemiologist, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran , Moghadami Mohsen نويسنده Internist, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran , Rahimi Haghighi Mitra نويسنده Expert of Health Affairs - Shiraz University of Medical Sciences , Shoa Hagighi Pegah نويسنده Expert of Vital Horoscope - Shiraz University of Medical Sciences , Hemmati Abdolrasool نويسنده Shiraz University of Medical Sciences
Abstract :
Background: The dependency ratio (DR) is defined as the
ratio of the non-working population to the economically active
population. Dependency ratio is calculated by the sum of
population under fifteen years and over 65 years divided by
15-64 year old population. The interpretation of DR variation
gives us the impact of health care services and some reproductive
interventions. This study analyzed a 23-year DR trend in rural
population of Fars province and the effect of some fertility
variables on it.
Methods: In this study, using data from vital horoscope and
regression analysis, we analyzed a 23-year period of DR and
some fertility indicators.
Results: The total DR significantly declined from 102.5% in 1990
to 41.4% in 2012 (P < 0.001). Most of this reduction is attributed
to reduction in young DR. Old dependency ratio (population of
65 years and more) was significantly growing (P < 0.035). Number
of rural health house, family planning coverage, total fertility
rate and general fertility rate was significantly associated with
total dependency ratio (P < 0.009).
Conclusion: We passed the first stage of demographic transition,
i.e. young dependency ratio declining. But the old dependency
ratio slowly increased; it is recommended that the health care
services should be promoted in future, especially services for
old age people.
