Modeling the Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases in Iran from 2005 to 2025: The Impact of Demographic Changes

Background: Estimating the burden of non-communicable diseases particularly cardiovascular disease (CVD) is es-sential for health management and policymaking. In this paper, we used a regression model to estimate the future im-pact of demographic changes on the burden of CVD in Iran during the next two decades. Methods: Disability-adjusted life years (DALY) were used to estimate the future burden of CVD in Iran. A regression model was used to estimate DALY caused by CVD in the Iranian population aged 30–100 yr, stratified by age group and sex. The predicted population of Iranians aged ≥ 30 yr was entered into the model and DALY were calculated over 2005-2025. To assess the areas of uncertainty in the model, we did sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo Simula-tion. Results: In the year 2005, there were 847309 DALYs caused by CVD in Iranian adults aged ≥ 30 yr. This figure will nearly be 1728836 DALYs in 2025. In other words, just because of the aging, DALY related to CVD will increase more than two-fold in 2025 compared with 2005. The burden of CVD was higher in men (443235) than in women (404235) in 2005; but in 2025, the difference will be less (867639 vs. 861319). Conclusion: The burden of CVD will increase steeply in Iran over 2005–2025, mainly because of the aging popula-tion. Therefore, more attention is needed to deal with the impact of CVD in the following decades in Iran.