Evaluation of Earthquake Potential in the Zagros Region (Iran) Using Seismic Strain and Seismicity Parameters

To elucidate the details, the Zagros region was divided into 11 zones and seismic strain tensors in each zone were calculated in time interval between 1963 and 2016. The symmetric and anti-symmetric strain tensors are also calculated to investigate dilatation, shear and rotational strains individually. Seismic strain and b-value are used to quantify seismic potential in the Zagros region (Iran). Small to medium b-values (0.66, 0.72 and 0.80) are accompanied with medium to large strain rates (2.87×10^-9, 3.02×10^-9 and 2.83×10^-8 ) in southeastern parts of the Zagros indicating more frequent moderate to large earthquakes. Medium b-values (0.72, 0.79 and 0.79) are accompanied with medium to large strain rates (2.52×10^-9, 4.33×10^-9 and 9.20×10^-9) in central parts of the Zagros indicating more frequent moderate to large earthquakes. Medium to large b-values (0.74, 0.75, 0.76, 0.79 and 1.01) are accompanied with small to large strain rates (1.42×10^-9, 2.09×10^-9, 2.19×10^-9, 4.15×10^-9 and 1.24×10^-8) in northwestern parts of Zagros indicating less frequent moderate to large earthquakes. Recurrence intervals of large earthquakes (M 6) in southeastern parts of Zagros (17, 43 and 48 years) and central parts of Zagros (24, 27 and 59 years) are shorter than northwestern parts (27, 51, 79 and 130 years).