Dynamic Analysis of the Consequences of Gas Release in Process Industries Using Event Tree Technique and Bayesian Network

Storage tanks that contain a wide range of chemicals, compressed gas, and other hydrocarbons play an important role in the process industries. Gas release from these tanks can lead to catastrophic events that can lead to significant financial, human, and environmental consequences. In this study, a compressed gas tank was chosen as the case unit under study. The gas release was taken into consideration as the top event for quantitative and qualitative analyses of the probable consequences using the Event Tree Analysis (ETA) and Bayesian network (BN) model. According to the ETA analyses, 6 safety barriers were identified that could prevent the top event and the success and failure of these barriers led to the 10 final consequences. Among the identified consequences, near misses were known to be the most probable consequences of the top event. The results showed that the presence of safety barriers could significantly reduce the consequences of the occurrence of the top event. BN could fix the static problem of the quantitative risk analysis and provide the capability to determine the most probable consequences of the top event.