Analysis of Iran's Export Market Potential Using Gravity Model: Evidence from Date Market

This study aimed at annual analysis of Iranian date export, using the gravity model and cross-section data for each year from 1994 to 2013. The estimated results of gravity equation show the negative effects of geographical distance and landlocked location, and the positive effects on Iran’s date export of re-export, political relations, social and commercial ties and access to high seas. The date export relative prices and per capita GDP of partners show that most of Iran’s date has been exported at low prices and to countries with low per capita income. Moreover, the calculated date export potential indicates that, on average, Iran’s export has been close to its full export potential in Central Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, while it has exploited only 76 percent of its export potential to European countries. More than half of the export potential to Germany, Italy, Denmark, and Sweden has remained unexploited. The lifting of trade sanctions, adherence to international hygienic standards, and investment in packaging industries are the most important suggestions to increase the share of Iran’s date in the world market.