Prediction of Time to Failure in Creep Type Large-Scale Landslide

Aims Time prediction of the main failure is of great assistance in managing the risk involved in landslide occurrence. The complexity of subsurface structure, lack of sufficient information about the slip surface, and complexity of seasonal factors make the prediction more difficult. Most of the solutions proposed for modeling the prediction of the main failure are not efficient and are associated with considerable errors due to the oversimplification. It makes the simultaneous incorporation of all effective factors nearly impossible. In this study, a reliable method was proposed for selecting the appropriate time to analyze the landslide movement and providing the speed threshold leading to the main landslide occurrence in a large-scale rockslide in the Anguran Open-Pit Mine. Materials Methods In this study, the data set of two years movement of a reliable creep type landslide in Anguran Mine (Zanjan, Iran) were implemented to modify the prediction method suggested by the previous study. The method of this study was a careful comparison of accelerator factors and landslide motion. Findings The independence of the movement speed from the effective factors such as precipitation could be a reliable situation that can be used to predict the critical condition of landslide motion toward final and rapid failure. In this rockslide, 1.5 million m^3 block of stone slid into the open pit. Conclusion The employed method presented in this study allows predicting the occurrence of a final rockslide within a reasonable interval of time and preventing the damage occurred through the timely evacuation of workers and equipment.