Author/Authors :
Kangavari, Hajar Nazari Department of Epidemiology - School of Public Health - Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran , Barzegar, Abdolrazagh Legal Medicine Research Center - Legal Medicine Organization, Tehran, Iran , Mirtorabi, Davood Department of Addiction Studies - School of Advanced Technologies in Medicine - Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran , Ghadirzadeh, Mohammad Reza Legal Medicine Research Center - Legal Medicine Organization, Tehran, Iran , Forouzesh, Mehdi Legal Medicine Research Center - Legal Medicine Organization, Tehran, Iran , Taherpour, Niloufar Department of Epidemiology - School of Public Health and Safety - Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran , Shahbazi, Fatemeh Department of Epidemiology - School of Public Health and Safety - Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran , Hashemi Nazari, Saeed Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention Research Center - Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety - Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
Abstract :
Background: Murder is one of the public health problems. According to the WHO reports, murder
is fourth leading cause of death among young people. The aim of this study was applying joint point
regression model to study trend of homicide mortality in Iran, 2006-2016.
Study design: A cross-sectional panel (pseudo-panel) study.
Methods: Homicide data during 2006 to 2016 were extracted from Iranian legal medicine
organization. Trends of homicide incidence were summarized by annual percent change (APC) and
average annual percent change (AAPC) using non-linear segmented regression model.
Results: Totally, 26918 homicide cases occurred during the period from 2006 to 2016. The highest
and lowest frequency was related to the 15-29 yr (46.5%) and 0-4 yr (1.5%) age groups,
respectively. The homicide incidence rate of the country in 2016 was 2.81 per 100,000. The four
provinces of Sistan & Baluchistan, Khuzestan, Kerman and Ilam had the highest incidence rate in
2016, respectively. During the study period, the incidence rate of homicide in Iran and men have
been significantly decreased (APC: -2.8% (95% CI: -3.9, -1.7) and -3.2% (95% CI: - 4.5, -1.8)
respectively (P<0.001)).
Conclusion: The pattern of homicide rate has a downward trend in the country. Moreover, the
varying observed trends in some provinces can be due to the variability in mental, geographical,
socio-economic and cultural conditions in each region.
