Modeling for Seismic Vulnerability Prediction Based on Physical-Spatial Indicators of Cities (Case Study: Tabriz Region 8)

Nowadays, given the growing trend of population and population density in urban areas especially in densely populated cities and in terms of seismicity, the need for a comprehensive and inclusive approach to natural and catastrophic events resulting from their occurrence has become more apparent. The detrimental effects of over-population concentration in specific urban areas along with a lack of preventive planning and the lack of preparedness to deal with events such as earthquakes is a very serious and important threat to citizens and the continuation of urban life. In this study, District 8 of Tabriz was selected as a case study. The research method is descriptive-analytical and the purpose of this study is to evaluate and model for predicting seismic vulnerability based on physical-spatial indices of Tabriz considering the quality criteria and providing a suitable model and Pattern for construction in Tabriz. For this purpose, out of 9 criteria, building density, population density, quality of buildings (accessibility), access to pedestrian networks, access to essentials, access to open and green spaces, land use, size of fragments, and distance. Dangerous centers have been used and Necessary statistical data is collected, then layers are prepared for seismic zoning and layering is done according to zoning standards, the final analysis was performed using the combination of AHP and Fuzzy TOPSIS methods in GIS (proposed method). Finally, the risk level of the study area was obtained from Tabriz city. The results show that the northern areas have the highest risk areas and the southern areas have the least rate, and finally it is concluded that the proposed model for risk zoning is applicable.