Study of the correlation between oil price and exchange rate under the new state of the economy

Aiming at solving the problem of small sample modeling of oil price and exchange rate with time-delayed causality, a grey multivariate time lag model and its solution are proposed against the new economic background of economic development, structural optimization, and power conversion. Considering the diculty of solving qorder dierential equations analytically, we obtain a numerical solution. On the basis of this solution, the validity of the model is proved. The numerical results show that the model can describe and predict the operating rules of oil price and exchange rate economic systems with time delay, and it is concluded that the development of oil price and exchange rate is not coordinated under the new state of the economy. The relationship between oil prices and the exchange rate has changed; in this state, oil prices have a positive eect on the rise of the exchange rate.