Other language title :
ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﻣﺲ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﻮج ﺷﻤﺎري ﺑﻪ ﮐﻤﮏ اﻣﻮاج اﻟﯿﻮت
Title of article :
Copper Price Prediction using Wave Count with Contribution of Elliott Waves
Author/Authors :
Ahangari, K Department of Mining Engineering - Science and Research Branch - Islamic Azad University - Tehran, Iran , Sattari, R Department of Mining Engineering - Science and Research Branch - Islamic Azad University - Tehran, Iran , Akbari Dehkharghani, A Department of Petroleum - Mining and Material Engineering - Central Tehran Branch - Islamic Azad University - Tehran, Iran
Abstract :
Within the last few decades, copper has been identified as one of the most applicable
metals by many researchers. These researchers have also been enthusiastic to predict the
price of this valuable metal. These days, the available technical analysis methods have
been highly applied in the financial markets. Moreover, the researchers have used these
methods to predict the suitable price trends. In the present work, some technical analysis
tools including the Fibonacci series, Elliott waves, and Ichimuko clouds were practiced to
scrutinize the price changes and predict the copper price. All copper prices from 2008 to
2016 were considered. Regarding the fractal property of these methods, the relations
among prices were obtained within an eight-year time sequence. Since 2016, the copper
price has been gradually deviated from its previous trend. Using the wave count and Elliott
waves has specified that the wave number 1 and wave number 2 have been completed.
Now, the time has come to develop the wave number 3. According to the relations
introduced by the Elliott waves and the clouds made by Ichimiku, it was determined that
the copper price would be almost $16000 per ton in 2022.
Farsi abstract :
مس ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﯾﮑﯽ از ﭘﺮﮐﺎرﺑﺮد ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻓﻠﺰات در دﻫﻪ ﻫﺎي اﺧﯿﺮ ﻣﻮرد ﻋﻼﻗﻪ ﻣﺤﻘﻘﯿﻦ زﯾﺎدي واﻗﻊ ﺷﺪه و ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ اﯾﻦ ﻓﻠﺰ ارزﺷﻤﻨﺪ، ﯾﮑﯽ از ﮔﺰﯾﻨﻪ ﻫﺎي ﻣﻮرد ﻋﻼﻗﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺸﮕﺮان ﻣﯿﺒﺎﺷﺪ. اﻣﺮوزه اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش ﻫﺎي ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺗﮑﻨﯿﮑﺎل در ﺑﺎزارﻫﺎي ﻣﺎﻟﯽ روﻧﻖ زﯾﺎدي ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ و ﻣﺤﻘﻘﺎن ﺑﻪ ﮐﻤﮏ آن ﺑﻪ ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ روﻧﺪﻫﺎي ﻗﯿﻤﺘﯽ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﯽ دﺳﺖ ﭘﯿﺪا ﻣﯽﮐﻨﻨﺪ. در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﻪ ﮐﻤﮏ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از اﺑﺰارﻫﺎي ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺗﮑﻨﯿﮑﺎل ﺑﺎ ﻧﺎم ﻫﺎي ﺳﺮي ﻓﯿﺒﻮﻧﺎﭼﯽ و اﻣﻮاج اﻟﯿﻮت و اﺑﺮﻫﺎي اﯾﭽﯿﻤﻮﮐﻮ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات و ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﻣﺲ ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺗﻤﺎم ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺲ از ﺳﺎل 2008 ﺗﺎ 2016 ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮارﮔﺮﻓﺖ و ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺧﺎﺻﯿﺖ ﻓﺮﮐﺘﺎﻟﯽ روش اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، رواﺑﻂ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ در ﺳﺮي زﻣﺎﻧﯽ 8 ﺳﺎﻟﻪ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ آﻣﺪ. ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﻣﺲ از ﺳﺎل 2016 ﺷﺮوع ﺑﻪ ﺧﺮوج از روﻧﺪ ﻗﺒﻠﯽ ﺧﻮد داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ و ﺑﺎ ﻣﻮج ﺷﻤﺎري ﺑﻪ ﮐﻤﮏ اﻣﻮاج اﻟﯿﻮت ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪ ﻣﻮج ﺷﻤﺎره ﯾﮏ و دو ﮐﺎﻣﻞ ﺷﺪه و ﺣﺎﻻ ﻧﻮﺑﺖ اﯾﺠﺎد ﻣﻮج ﺳﻪ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ رواﺑﻂ اﯾﺠﺎد ﺷﺪه ﺗﻮﺳﻂ اﻣﻮاج اﻟﯿﻮت و اﺑﺮﻫﺎي اﯾﺠﺎد ﺷﺪه ﺗﻮﺳﻂ رواﺑﻂ اﯾﭽﯿﻤﯿﻮﮐﻮ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﻣﺲ در اواﯾﻞ دﻫﻪ ﺑﻌﺪي ﻣﯿﻼدي ﯾﻌﻨﯽ ﺳﺎل 2022 ﺑﻪ ﻗﯿﻤﺘﯽ در ﺣﺪود 16000 دﻻر ﺑﻪ ازاي ﻫﺮ ﺗﻦ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ رﺳﯿﺪ.
Keywords :
Elliott waves , Metal price prediction , Copper
Journal title :
Journal of Mining and Environment