VEGETATION BIOMASS PREDICTION IN THE CATTLE CORRIDOR OF UGANDA

Pastoralists in Sub-Saharan Africa face complex problems notably frequent and severe droughts. This study was conducted in the cattle corridor of Uganda, a largely semiarid area to estimate the likely vegetative biomass production under the 2071-2100 projected rainfall conditions. Spatio-temporal pattern of vegetative biomass production were determined by analysis of the seasonal variation of Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for 10 years from 2001-2010. A biomass relationship was established between the NDVI and the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI); and used to project the period 2071-2100 NDVI using downscaled rainfall for the cattle corridor. A change trajectory performed on the annual means revealed the highest increase in vegetation in 2008 (0.031) and decrease in 2009 (-0.022). The SPI revealed two main droughts that were established to have occurred in the years of 2004 - 2005 and 2008-2009. The wettest year was 2003 and corresponded with the increase in NDVI. A strong positive correlation of rainfall and vegetation was established (r=0.99). Precipitation has influenced vegetative biomass in the cattle corridor as there is a positive correlation between precipitation and the vegetative biomass production. Secondly, vegetation is likely to be concentrated in areas that will have high precipitation in 2070-2100, such as Luwero and the districts south of it of the cattle corridor compared to those in the north of the cattle corridor of Uganda.