Conceptual modelling of Lake Manyas, Turkey

Previously determined biological and physico-chemical properties of Lake Manyas are employed in modelling the sensitivity of water quality and ecosystem integrity to the (a) water residence time and (b) nutrient inputs from anthropogenic sources. In that context, simple ecological conceptual models are simulated for predicting changes in the aquatic ecosystem with respect to these driving variables. Results yield thresholds where major changes in system behaviour are expected. Based on model predictions, recommendations for the restoration of water quality and ecosystem integrity are made.