WHEAT PRODUCTION ANALYSIS BY USING ECONOMETRIC MODELS

The study analyzed time series data for the period 1994–2013 on areas sown with wheat, purchase price for wheat, subsidies and wheat used for seed in Serbia. The authors developed dynamic models, on which they forecast that 89000 tons of wheat would be used in 2014 for an area of 507000 ha. This ARIMA model confirms that in wheat production economic factors have a dominant impact on sown areas and quantities of wheat used for seed. Subsidies are a quite important factor in wheat production. The authors ascertained that wheat yields were increasing, less affected by economic than by agro–ecological factors. The accuracy of this model was tested with standard statistical methods. The model provides some very useful information that could serve a starting point for agricultural policy decision-making and farmers who plan future production.