Author/Authors :
Olfatifar, Meysam Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases Research Center - Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases - Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran , Houri, Hamidreza Foodborne and Waterborne Diseases Research Center - Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases - Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran , Shojaee, Sajad Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases Research Center - Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases - Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran , Pourhoseingholi, Mohamad Amin Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases Research Center - Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases - Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran , Alali, Walid Q. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics - Faculty of Public Health - Kuwait University, Safat, Kuwait , Busani, Luca Department of Infectious Diseases - Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Roma, Italy , Ashtari, Sara Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases Research Center - Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases - Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran , Shahrokh, Shabnam Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases Research Center - Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases - Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran , Vahedian, Amir Trauma Research Center - Nursing Faculty - Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran , Asadzadeh Aghdaei, Hamid Basic and Molecular Epidemiology of Gastrointestinal Disorders Research Center - Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases - Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran
Abstract :
The ongoing devastating epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Iran and the evolving public health situation is very concerning. We have developed a deterministic epidemiological SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model to quantify the required time and efficacy to bring the COVID-19 outbreak under control in Iran. Our results showed that the efficacy of COVID-19 confronting strategies on Feb 29th and March 9th were at 0.5 and 0.7, respectively owing to the relative equivalence number of infected cases estimated by the model and national officially reported cases. Therefore, to control the COVID-19 outbreak in Iran we strongly recommend maintaining the effectiveness of interventions at 0.7 or more at least for the next 4 - 6 weeks. Because the COVID-19 declining statistics over the next few days or weeks do not mean the definitive control of the outbreak.
