Trend extrapolation of domestic air travel demand in Nigeria (2018-2030)

This study examines the trend extrapolation of domestic air travel demand in Nigeria. Yearly data from 2010 to 2017 were collected from secondary sources. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression was used to forecast the twelve the years (2018 to 2030) demand for domestic air passenger travel in Nigeria. The demand for domestic air passenger in Nigeria from the year 2010 to 2017 was compared with the forecast. There seems to be periods of fluctuations in the demand for domestic air passenger travel in Nigeria from year 2010 to 2017. These fluctuations in the demand for domestic air passenger travel in Nigeria are expected to have effect on the forecast of domestic air travel. Calculation and computation reveal that the coefficient of determination R^2 is 0.203. The test reveals that the error term is maximum or very high and the explanation level is very low; hence the prediction or forecast is unreliable. Despite the decline in the forecast of domestic air passenger demand in the future and the fact that the forecast is unreliable as shown from the coefficient of determination, the government agencies should be sensitive to the forecast and try to adopt new policies and strategies that will enhance the demand for domestic air passenger travel in Nigeria.