PRODUCTION AND ACREAGE RESPONSE OF WHEAT IN THE NORTHWEST FRONTIER PROVINCE (NWFP)

The aim of study was attempted to determine the influence of market price (price factor) and rainfall (non-price factor) on wheat production and acreage by employing Nerlovian Adjustment Model in time series data over a period of time (1981-82 to 2007-08) in NWFP. The result findings are obtained by applying Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) techniques of estimation, which reveal that positive and significant relationship (P 0.05) is observed between wheat production and rainfall. In case of wheat production, short and long run elasticities of market price was worked out 0.014 and 0.027 and of rainfall 0.130 and 0.256, respectively. While in case of wheat acreage, the short and long run elasticities of market price was estimated as -0.016 and -0.078 and of rainfall as 0.032 and 0.150, respectively. The larger value and positive sign of F-ratio reveals highly significant overall research findings (P 0.01). Merely market price announcement is not enough, but the adequate and timely supply of water mainly through rainfall has been proved vital input in achieving wheat production targets over a period of 27 years (1981-82 to 2007-08) in NWFP. The Government must shift their emphasis from market price announcement to the irrigation practices (mainly through rainfall) for wheat production enh ancement.