WHEN DO STUDENTS INTEND TO RETURN? DETERMINANTS OF STUDENTS’ RETURN INTENTIONS USING A MULTINOMIAL LOGIT MODEL

Using a multinomial logit model, this paper examines the determinants of when international students intend to return home upon completion of their current tertiary-level studies in New Zealand universities, that is, whether to return immediately, return after further education, return after some working stints abroad, or not return at all. Different intended return time frames will subsequently translate into a permanent brain drain, a more transitory brain circulation phenomenon or an immediate return migration. The paper finds that the return time frames are affected most by skill use opportunities, preferred type of lifestyle, work environment, initial return intention, length of stay duration in the host country and the level and discipline of study. Demographic factors such as age, gender and marital status are less important in determining the return time frames.