FORECASTING TRADE BEHAVIOUR OF MAJOR FOOD CROPS IN FOUR LEADING SAARC COUNTRIES

Poverty alleviation is going to become the hot stack in the world. Many of the researchers and policy makers are engaged to overcome this problem. South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) consists of a rich topographic, climatic endowments and variations. The region is blessed with cereals, fruits, ornamental, medicinal and staple foods of diverse varieties. SAARC countries have a capacity to produce a quantum of foreign exchange by its agriculture export programmes. This sector has the potential to uplift income, alleviate hunger, poverty and thus to cut down socio-economic constraints of the region. The study under consideration is an outcome of decomposition method to check the future state of economic and trade affairs in four major countries (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) of SAARC for different commodities (Cotton lint, Rice milled and Sugar refined). Data used in this study is taken from Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) during 1970 to 2010, while for Bangladesh the period has been considered from 1972 to 2010. The results reveal that India will enjoy optimum level in the export of cotton, sugar and rice while Pakistan will achieve second level and future export of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka will remain at low level in all the commodities.