A Fuzzy Logic Approach to Estimate the Import of Smuggling in Iran

The consequences of illegal import as part of underground economy indicate that why it is important to study smuggling. In this paper, fuzzy logic approach is applied to compute import smuggling in Iran from 1978 to 2010 through three explanatory variables including import tariffs, exchange gap and trade openness. According to the results, relative volume of import smuggling to official import during the years of war and revolution, and the years of first, second, third and fourth development plan was approximately estimated 18.2, 17.6, 29, 32.2 and 30.8 percent, respectively. While during the entire period it has been 24 percent, on average. Finally, the results indicate an increasing trend for import smuggling as it has increased from 19.3 percent in 1978 to 27.6 percent of official import in 2010.