Designing a Model for Predicting and Analyzing Factors Affecting the Occurrence of Environmental Incidents: A Case Study in MAPNA Group

Nowadays, environmental incidents are one of the most important problems around the world; therefore, it is of particular to manage these incidents. The aim of this study was to identify the causes of environmental incidents, analysis of their interactions, and the contribution of these factors in the occurrence of environmental incidents at Mapna group. Tripod Beta method was used to determine the effective factors occurrence of the environmental incidents after collecting data, screening and classifying. Thereafter, factor analysis was designed to provide a conceptual model. In order to analyze the relationship between the affecting incidents factors, a model was designed and the contribution rate of each factor was determined. So, the most effective causes of these incidents were determined for each identified causes. Finally, a goodnes of fit test was performed to determine the reliability of the model. By performing Tripod Beta analysis, it was found that 68.5% of the prerequisite causes and 71.3% of the identified latent causes were related to organizational factors, control and monitoring, audit and review, and production requirements. The results showed that the latent causes have the highest beta value; therefore, these had the highest impact on the occurrence of environmental incidents at Mapna group. It was also found that insufficient commitment of management was the most important cause of the environmental incidents. The organization management commitment and appropriate techniques are those key factors which should be taken into account in controlling the risk of environmental incidents.