ECONOMETRIC STUDY TO PREDICT THE MEAT GAP IN EGYPT USING ARIMA (BOX-JENKINS) METHOD

This study alms at predicting the production and consumption of red meat, poultry and fish in Egypt until 2015 using the model (Box- Jenkins), a probabilistic model. The results indicated that the model ARIMA (0,1,1) is the best model for the production and consumption of both red meat and poultry, and the model ARIMA (0,0,1) is the best model for the prouuction and consumption of fish. The results showed the efficiency of these models and estimates of landmarks in the process of expectation based on the analysis of residuals (error). The results have been as close as possible to reality. Where the study predicted tpat the amounts of production and consumption of red meat in 2015 will be increased by about 16%, 11.2% respectively compared to 2007, as the size of the gap is expected to drop by about 42.5% compared to 2007. The study expected that the amounts of production and consumption of white meat in 2015 will be increased by 33.9%, 38.2% compared to 2007, and the gap is expected to drop as the size of the surplus of white meat will be about 28% compared to 2007. The results of expectations for the abovementioned years showed stability of production and consumption of fish meat and the absence of a gap.