A path analysis on the impact of population increase on rice field conversion

Ricefield conversion is a transformation of rice field function from rice production to other uses. The accumulation of the case will threaten Indonesian food security in the future if early anticipation is not prepared. The objectives of this research wereto figure out the amount of rice field conversion and to identify a path of the impact of population increase on the ricefield conversion in Padang city, Indonesia. This research was conducted in Padang city from July to September 2017. Data wascollected from Statistics of Padangcityand official documents of Padang city from 2006 to 2017. Variables are the number of population, per capita income, land forsettlement, length of road constructed, price of rice, and area of ricefield. The methodsof analysis were trendanalysis and path analysis using IBM SPSS 23 and Smart PLS3 softwares. The result showedthat there was about 31.9 ha/year of ricefield converted to other uses in Padang citywithin the last ten years. The population increase cause the indirect impact on the rice field conversion. The impact of populationincreaseon the ricefieldconversion passes through per capita income and land for settlement as mediatingfactors.