REEXAMINING THE LIMITATIONS OF PERT TECHNIQUE CAUSED BY NETWORK VARIABILITY USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

Previous studies have examined the limitations associated with PERT technique. Most of these studies utilized Monte Carlo Simulation in analyzing these limitations because of its flexibility and accuracy. This study reexamines PERT technique by simulating different networks in terms of their magnitude of variability, which is measured by getting their coefficients of variation. Results of this study showed that PERT technique is less efficient in scheduling projects with high variability. More precisely, PERT technique is more appropriate to projects with low variability and with almost no sub-critical paths. High variability can easily lead to different mean that is most of the time different from the PERT mean. Eventually this will lead to different probability analysis with respect to completing a project at different times. Thus, it is preferable to use simulation for its high potentiality in recognizing random activities and paths in PERT networks.