INFLUENCE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES ON HYDROLOGICAL REGIME OF RIVERS IN THE SOUTH WEST SIBERIA

The research is aimed at studying the impact of climatic changes on the formation of surface runoff in the south West Siberia. To solve this problem, a statistical analysis of discharge data series on rivers in the area under study, and the simulation of the surface runoff in the model basins with the use of water balance equations were made. The dynamics of precipitation and air temperature during the warm period of the last two thousand years in the south of West Siberia was calculated, and the forecast for the next centuries was made. Using the results of statistical analysis of data series of average annual discharges for major rivers in the south of West Siberia the linear trends were calculated. The change in annual discharges for the last decades was estimated. The discharge forecast for the following 10 – 20 years was given, and the zones of its increase /decrease in the area under study were identified. Based on the water balance equation, the variable-based calculation of the runoff in the model basins for long-term annual average normal year and the years with scenario variations of temperature and precipitation was made.