Title of article :
Seasonality Impact on the Transmission Dynamics of Tuberculosis
Author/Authors :
Yang, Yali Air Force Engineering University - Xi’an - Shaanxi, China , Guo, Chenping Air Force Engineering University - Xi’an - Shaanxi, China , Liu, Luju School of Mathematics and Statistics - Henan University of Science and Technology - Luoyang, China , Zhang, Tianhua Institute of Tuberculosis Prevention and Treatment in Shaanxi - Xi’an - Shaanxi, China , Liu, Weiping Institute of Tuberculosis Prevention and Treatment in Shaanxi - Xi’an - Shaanxi, China
Abstract :
The statistical data of monthly pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) incidence cases from January 2004 to December 2012 show the
seasonality fluctuations in Shaanxi of China. A seasonality TB epidemic model with periodic varying contact rate, reactivation rate,
and disease-induced death rate is proposed to explore the impact of seasonality on the transmission dynamics of TB. Simulations
show that the basic reproduction number of time-averaged autonomous systems may underestimate or overestimate infection risks
in some cases, which may be up to the value of period. The basic reproduction number of the seasonality model is appropriately
given, which determines the extinction and uniform persistence of TB disease. If it is less than one, then the disease-free equilibrium
is globally asymptotically stable; if it is greater than one, the system at least has a positive periodic solution and the disease will
persist. Moreover, numerical simulations demonstrate these theorem results.
Keywords :
Seasonality , Transmission , Tuberculosis , TB
Journal title :
Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
