Outbreak of COVID‑19 in Thailand: Time Serial Analysis on Imported and Local Transmission Cases

COVID‑19 is an important new emerging infection. After it appears first in China,[1] Thailand is the second country where outbreak occurred.[2] The first “zero” patient in Thailand is an imported Chinese patient identified at January 2020. There are continuums of COVID‑19 cases in Thailand. Both imported and local transmission cases still newly occur despite several attempts for disease control and prevention. For successful prevention of expansion of disease, the knowledge on nature of disease progression in each setting is needed for proper management planning. Here, the authors perform a time serial analysis on imported and local transmission cases of COVID‑19 in Thailand. Until February 29, 2020, there are already 42 accumulated cases of COVID‑19 in Thailand (34 imported and 8 local transmission cases). The ratio between local transmission and importation is equal to 1:4.25. Figure 1 shows time serial of imported and local transmission cases. The velocity rate of disease progression in imported and local transmission cases are equal to 0.71 and 0.26/day, respectively. The acceleration rate of disease progression in imported and local transmission cases are equal to 0.015 and 0.008/day2, respectively. Therefore, the importation contributes faster and more cases of COVID‑19 than local transmission. Preventive measures in the study setting seem to be more effective in controlling of local transmission.