Author/Authors :
Amaku, Marcos School of Medicine - University of Sao Paulo - Sao Paulo, Brazil , Bezerra Coutinho, Francisco Antonio School of Medicine - University of Sao Paulo - Sao Paulo, Brazil , Armstrong, Margaret School of Applied Mathematics - Fundacao Getulio Vargas - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil , Massad, Eduardo School of Medicine - University of Sao Paulo - Sao Paulo, Brazil
Abstract :
We present two probabilistic models to estimate the risk of introducing infectious diseases into previously unafected
countries/regions by infective travellers. We analyse two distinct situations, one dealing with a directly transmitted infection
(measles in Italy in 2017) and one dealing with a vector-borne infection (Zika virus in Rio de Janeiro, which may happen in the
future). To calculate the risk in the frst scenario, we used a simple, nonhomogeneous birth process. Te second model proposed
in this paper provides a way to calculate the probability that local mosquitoes become infected by the arrival of a single infective
traveller during his/her infectiousness period. Te result of the risk of measles invasion of Italy was of 93% and the result of the risk
of Zika virus invasion of Rio de Janeiro was of 22%.
