Road Project Investment Evaluation Using Net Present Value (NPV) at Risk Method

Strategic capital investment decisions are crucial and require careful analysis and consideration. This is due to the characteristics of infrastructure projects that are vulnerable to risks and uncertainties. Net Present Value (NPV)-at-Risk model developed by Ye and Tiong (2000) is a tool for investment evaluation under uncertainties. This paper presents an extension of the model to determine NPV at risk proposed by Ye and Tiong (2000). NPV at risk has been determined using three discount methods, cash flow after payment of tax, interest and principal debt, and the results were compared to choose the best one. NPV at risk was also determined using normal distribution and Monte Carlo simulation method with varying debt equity ratio. The evaluation of the road project shows that the NPV-at-risk method can provide a better decision for risk evaluation and investment in privately financed road projects. This paper presents NPV at risk and return at this NPV with a real case study