NEGOTIATIONS ON SPECIAL AGRICULTURAL SAFEGUARDS: ISSUES, ANALYSIS OPTIONS AND A CASE STUDY

The Special Agricultural Safeguard (SAG) is a provision that may be invoked by a Member country of WTO for a product subject to tariffication. It is for the application of the special safeguard designated in the Member’s Schedule. It is designed to prevent disruption on domestic markets due to import surges. The current paper provides the answer to the research question, whether special agricultural safeguards have impact on international trade flow or not? Time series data of imports of butter in USA from 13 countries was modeled and estimated by using OLS technique. The adjusted coefficient of determination for the import demand equation of the butter was 0.56, which indicates that the variables included in the equation explained 56 per cent of the variation in imports of butter in the USA. The overall result of the model was also significant as reflected through estimated F-value. The results also showed that in the import demand equation, the coefficients of price, in-quota tariff and over-quota tariff were negative as per a priori expectations. The positive sign of SAG revealed that total volume of imports and the commitments of suppliers plays important role in the import of butter.