FORECASTING DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF ONION IN PAKISTANI PUNJAB

The present study was designed for estimation of future projections regarding onion area, production and consumption in Punjab, Pakistan. The ARIMA model was employed for obtaining such forecasts. Consumption and production gap of onion was also estimated for up-to the year 2025. The forecasted results entail onion area and production to be 47.484 thousand hectares and 372.403 thousand tonnes in 2025, respectively. The reliability of forecasted values of ARIMA models were ensured by comparing actual values and forecasted values for the year 2008-09. It was found that our forecasted values are appropriate with small values of standard errors. Results of the study also point out severe gap in production and consumption of onion in the coming years. The supply and demand gap can be avoided by taking appropriate measures in research and development and policy-making as well.