STUDYING RAINFALL CHANGES AND WATER EROSION OF SOIL BY USING THE WEPP MODEL IN LATTAKIA, SYRIA

Changes of soil erosion and rainfall have been simulated by using the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model between 2016 and 2039 in Lattakia, Syria. This study was conducted in 6 locations that are characterized by two different ecosystems (agricultural, forest). The results show a linear decrease in rainfall amount of about 7.11 mm per year (170 mm for the whole studying period). For the years 2025, 2026 and 2030, three snowy storm events have been predicted, while the year 2030 will record the highest rainfall amount of 1816.1 mm. According to the WEPP model, the average of estimated soil erosion amount in Alhamara has reached 19 t/ha/y for the agricultural system while it is estimated to be 2.03 t/ha/y for the forest system. The general average of soil erosion in the study area (taking into consideration the variety of slope) within the agricultural system has reached 14.086 t/ha/y, which indicates that there will be a dangerous impact of future erosion on the sustainability of natural sources (soil, water) in the study area.