Revisiting Thailand’s Aggression Against Cambodia, 1953–1962: An Expected Utility Theory of War Initiation

The expected utility theory of war initiation is used to examine Thailand’s bellicosity against Cambodia between 1953 and 1962 in order to evaluate whether Thai political decisions to start a war-threatening conflict were rational. An expected utility model analysis using EUGene, the data management utility software, suggests that Thailand’s decisions to initiate war with Cambodia were rational in accordance with the expected utility decision rules. Hence, despite being counter-intuitive, Thailand’s aggression against Cambodia as well as Thai foreign policy in general during the specified period is not unreasonable.