Editoriali: Climate Change and Tropical Agriculture: an Uncertain Picture

The first quantitative predictions of the “hothouse effect” were made by in Sweden by Svante Arrhenius in 1896. Arrhenius correctly predicted a temperature rise of 4oC with a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations, but, based on the low carbon emissions of the time, thought that this would take many centuries to achieve. Moreover, influenced no doubt by Sweden’s cool climate, he thought that this warming would be good for agriculture, writing that “we may hope to enjoy ages with more equable and better climates…when the earth will bring forth much more abundant crops than at present, for the benefit of rapidly propagating mankind.”