Title of article :
Know Past Understand Present Plan and Manage the Future
Author/Authors :
acar, ünal içişleri bakanlığı, Turkey
From page :
379
To page :
391
Abstract :
In addition to meeting the requirements of the modern era technologically, the uncertainties for the future and the implementation of change management have become a necessity. It is not a realistic approach to think about the future independently of the past. In order to predict the future, it is necessary to know the past and the present very well. When planning the future, it should not be forgotten that the development and change we have experienced in the past and today shape the future. States with the best estimate of future conditions will be the states that have the easiest adaptation to change and can control the factors. In particular, the concepts of strategic management and planning have been frequently encountered in the field of management, and this has led to the need for scenario analysis and scenario planning, which is an important technique for strategic management. Strategic planning is about knowing the past, understanding the present, and predicting the future. Strategic planning tries to understand the future by evaluating information. The future does not happen only because it is estimated. Accurate and reliable information is needed. It is the right information, experience and will to ensure the correct analysis of the developments. The factors that determine the future are very variable. Changes in one factor may affect multiple developments. Predicting the future with numerous possibilities and uncertainties and managing these estimates is an important problem. It is important to make a contribution to the global and regional changes in the power that can be anticipated in the near or distant future.For this reason, understanding the future has been one of the most basic search for people since the day they came to earth. The task of strategists, knowing the past, to make predictions about the future by understanding the events of the past, to plan the future people and institutions to provide the right information about the possible events. To be evaluated with a systematic perspective supported by scientific methods by using uncertainties, knowledge and experience. In the period before World War II people were uncertain as to whether their country would enter into a war, and since the 1945s, people were living in uncertainty about which weapons to use in the next war. In the 1950s, scientists began to argue that the rate of change was approximately 50 times higher than in previous centuries, and how much a person could change the change. The momentum of uncertainty increased. The aim of our article is to present information about strategic management, strategic planning, scenario analysis and scenario method which are more important in our world where new developments are experienced every day and global power struggle continues with all the ruthlessness.
Keywords :
Future , History , Planning , Strategy , Scenario
Journal title :
Selcuk University Journal Of Institute Of Social Sciences
Journal title :
Selcuk University Journal Of Institute Of Social Sciences
Record number :
2685452
Link To Document :
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