Abstract :
Containing over 90 million inhabitants, population wise Punjab Province of Pakistan is a big region, even bigger than many of the world s countries and most of the countries of Muslim World. It contributes about 56% to the country s total population which is the worlds sixth biggest with regard to population size. The rate at which population of Punjab has grown as a result of natural increase is a matter of national consequence and, therefore, needs an appropriate look. In this regard, study of fertility levels attains the status of basic ingredient. This study is aimed at to present a clearer picture of fertility levels and pattern in Punjab. The analysis of fertility levels in spatial perspective is based on the census data measured at district level. A satisfactory picture of the spatial pattern of fertility can t be presented by using any single measure of fertility. Therefore, seven different sets of basic summery measures have been used to compute fertility, which provide a reliable picture of fertility levels. These measures include crude birth rate (CBR), general fertility rate (GFR), child woman ratio (CWR), marital fertility rate (MFR), gross reproduction rate (GRR), age specific fertility rate (ASFR) and total fertility rate (TFR). CWR has been computed for 1981 and 1998 census data whereas all other measures are based on 1998 census data which is the latest available. The spatial pattern of fertility computed from these measures has been presented statistically and cartographically. The results indicate that fertility levels of the districts of same province as well as rural-urban areas of the same districts vary markedly. Some of the districts show considerably high rate of fertility than others. This may reasonably be attributed to the differences in their level of socio-economic development. The study thus suggests that by increasing the pace of socio-economic development at district level, fertility rates can be reduced and process of rapid population growth can be slowed down.
