CAUSATION ANALYSIS BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE, CAPITAL GOODS, INTERMEDIATE GOODS AND CONSUMER GOODS IMPORTS IN THE LONG TERM: 2000-2013

One of the main variables that determines the imports is exchange rate. Exchange rate and imports have an inverse relationship. Imports of capital goods and intermediate goods are required for a country to increase the amount of the production and exports. But consumer goods imports does not affect the production. Imports of consumption goods grows due to the increased national income of the country. In the short term in light of the theoretical framework of this study, we assume that the relationship between exchange rate and consumer goods, but we are assuming the exchange rate in the long term only with the relationship between capital goods and intermediate goods. However, we expect long-term relationship between exchange rate and consumer goods. We used the Granger Causality test method for analysis. In contrast to the expected results of the analysis can be seen in the consumption of goods and foreign currency long-term causality. Imports of consumer goods is sensitive to changes in the exchange rate in the long term.