The Analysis of the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on the Dynamics of the Flow of Funds Account with an Emphasis on the Private Sector

In this paper, the impact of monetary shocks on asset changes and the financial liabilities of different institutional sectors were examined. Afterwards, financial and non-financial tools of the private sector’s balance sheet in the funds flow account were analyzed. For this purpose, a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model is employed for the data from 1973-2017. Results show that expansionary monetary shock has led to a rise in the assets and financial liabilities belonging to institutional sectors in the first year. With regard to the private sector and the financial tools of its balance sheet, monetary shock significantly impacts this sector’s long-term deposit while it has a weak insignificant impact on the short-term deposit. The monetary shock also has a strong significant impact on the private sector’s taking long-term loans while it has a weak insignificant impact on the short-term loans taken by the same sector. Regarding the non-financial tools of this sector, the expansionary monetary shock has a positive effect on the construction and machinery investment in the short run. In the long run, however, the two variables’ responses are reversed which indicates the negative effect of monetary shock caused by an increase in oil revenues on the private sector’s investment in both the construction and the machinery sector. As a result, it can be concluded that the oil revenue reduces the private sector’s relative size in Iran economy.