Title of article :
Prediction of primary energy consumption using NDGM(1,1,k,c) model with Simpson formula
Author/Authors :
Wua, W. School of Science - Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, China , Maa, X. School of Science - Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, China , Wangd, Y. State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation - Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, China , Caie, W. College of Engineering and Technology - Southwest University, Chongqing, China , Zeng, B. College of Business Planning - Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing, China
Abstract :
Energy consumption plays a key role in economic development for all countries. Keeping up with the future trend of energy consumption is essential for governments and energy companies. In this research, the primary energy consumption for Saudi Arabia, India, Philippines, and Vietnam is systematically studied using different forecasting models. Based on the actual data derived from the year 2006 to 2016, a novel discrete grey forecasting model termed NDGMS(1,1,k,c) is proposed where the Simpson numerical integration formula is applied to construct the background value. The expressions of the present model are all derived and then, its unbiased property is proved. As demonstrated by the results, the NDGMS(1,1,k,c) model can achieve better prediction accuracy than other forecasting models, and it is quite applicable to predicting a sequence based on homogeneous/non-homogeneous exponential law.
Farsi abstract :
فاقد وابستگي سازماني
Keywords :
Primary energy consumption , Grey forecasting model , Simpson formula , Non-homogeneous index sequence , Prediction accuracy
Journal title :
Scientia Iranica(Transactions D: Computer Science and Electrical Engineering)
