CLIMATIC VARIABILITY AND DENGUE VIRUS TRANSMISSION IN CHIANG RAI, THAILAND

Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the impact of climate variation on the dengue virus transmission in Chiang Rai, Thailand. Materials and Methods: We obtained population – based information on monthly variation in monthly dengue cases and climatic factors. A time series analysis was conducted by using cross- correlation function and seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) modeling. Results and Conclusions: Our findings indicate that rainfall and minimum temperature seem to have played an important role in the transmission of dengue in Chiang Rai. Such model may be used to assist public health decision – making and environmental health risk management. Early warning based on forecasts could assist in improving vector control, community intervention, and personal protection.