REEL KUR DEĞİŞİMLERİNİN DIŞ TİCARET DENGESİNE OLAN ETKİSİNİ DEĞERLENDİRMEDE GÜNCEL BİR YAKLAŞIM: S-EĞRİSİ HİPOTEZİ

Backus et al. (1994) introduced in their work a new approach, the S-curve hypothesis, which indicates the pre- and post-devaluation response of the trade balance against the changes in the real exchange in the short-run. This hypothesis is basically based on the cross corralation between the trade balance and the terms of trade or the real exchange rate. According to this view while the cross-correlation between the current exchange rate and future trade balances could be positive, the one between the current exchange rate and past values of the trade balance could be negative. In this study we introduced the existing literature about the S-curve hypothesis. Our aim is basically to have a prevision about the future works.