TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ’NDE İHRACATA DAYALI BÜYÜME HİPOTEZİNİN YAPISAL KIRILMALI BİRİM KÖK VE EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME TESTLERİ İLE İNCELENMESİ

There are certain concepts associated with the economic growth, a vital issue of the economies in the developed and developing countries. An indicator signing the development of countries is the constant increase in the living standards of the people who live in that country. The increase in goods and services produced in a country helps that country to provide economic growth. In this study, it is aimed to find out whether quarterly data covering the period 1998:01-2011:04 and the export-led growth hypothesis in Turkey is valid. In the analysis of the data, beside the classical unit root tests, classical co-integration tests and causality tests, unit root test and co-integration tests that are developed for the case of presence of structural break were used. As a result of both classical cointegration test and the cointegration test that allows the existence of structural breaks, long-term relationship was found. According to the results of the causality analysis, there is a bi-directional causal relationship between exports and growth. The results obtained were compared and evaluated with the findings of the previous studies for Turkey.