Projections of tourist arrivals in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey

Tourism forecasting plays a vital role in developing a firm policy for the management of future development in the sector. This study makes tourist arrival projections in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey with the application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Monthly data of tourist arrivals from 2008 to 2018 have been used for the proposed model. The results have revealed that the proposed model has projected the tourist arrival values that are near to actual tourist arrivals. Tourist arrivals are expected to be increased in the future years in Eastern Black Sea Region, hence, making the region a popular tourist destination. Therefore, prior measures are essential to take to develop tourism in a sustainable form. The results of the study are useful for the development of better tourism policy for the region as future projection is an integral part of sustainable tourism development.