Predicting the Potential Distribution of Centaurea balsamita Lam. in the world in current conditions and future climate change

Aims: An attempt was made to understand the effects of climate change on the potential future distribution of Centaurea balsamita In the world. C. balsamita is an annual herb in the Asteraceae family that invades fallow and slope areas worldwide. Climate change is causing extreme weather events that are having far-reaching effects on ecosystems across the globe, including Plant species distribution: CLIMEX software is used worldwide to analyze the potential distribution of species. Materials methods: The experiments were conducted in Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province. In the present study, CLIMEX software was used to study the potential distribution of this plant in the world at present and future climate conditions. The CLIMEX software requires five climate variables, including average, maximum, and minimum monthly temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity at 9 Am and 3 Pm. These data were obtained from various sources such as “CRU TS v.4.03” and used in model predictions. Literature data were used to gather information on biology and ecology needed to model the distribution of C. balsamita in Iran and worldwide under current and future climatic conditions. Findings: Our results revealed that in current conditions, Europe, Asia, and North America are suitable locations for this invasive weed dispersal, and most parts of Europe have optimal conditions (20≤ EI) for the dispersal of C. balsamita. It is likely that the suitable C. balsamita habitat area will be wider in some parts of the world such as Asia, America, and Europe under future climatic scenarios as a result of the heat stress and will be limited in some areas such as Turkmenistan. Conclusion: C. balsamita has global potential in both current and future climate scenarios. We have shown that entire regions are suitable for the establishment of C. balsamita, especially in Central Asia, Iran, Afghanistan, Turkey, and China. This is very consistent with its distribution at its origin.