Concentration of PM2.5 and Prediction of Total Death Rates of People over 30 Attributed to All Causes of These Matters in Ahvaz, Iran (2008-2017)

Background Aims: About 40 000 people in Iran annually die due to exposure to a concentration of airborne particulate matter less than PM2.5. This study aimed to zone the concentration of particulate matter PM2.5 and predict the total number of deaths of people over 30 due to all causes of these particles in Ahvaz during 2008-2017. Materials and Methods: This analytical-descriptive study was based on estimation modeling. The data relating to the concentration of PM2.5 during 2008-2017 were obtained from the Environmental Protection Organization of Khuzestan province, and the 10-year mortality data were obtained from the Deputy of Health of Khuzestan province. The normality of data distribution was checked in SPSS by the Kolmogorov-Smirnoff normality test methods. Finally, the central tendency, indices of dispersion, distribution, and relative dispersion were examined as well. For the spatial analysis of PM2.5 using ArcGIS 8.10 through the IDW method, relative to the amount of changes in the PM2.5 concentration in Ahvaz in terms of pollution, after normalizing the data, the deaths attributed to PM2.5 were estimated by AirQ + . Results: The results showed that the highest and lowest daily PM2.5 concentrations during a ten-year period in Ahvaz were 234.19 μg/m^3 and 18.15 μg/m^3 in 2009 and 2017, respectively. The comparison of relative risk indices and the number of cases attributed to PM2.5 for death from all causes in the basic incidence of 55.806 people in the population over 30 demonstrated that the highest and lowest relative risk was 1.44 in 2010 and 1.23 in 2014, respectively. Further, the highest and lowest total number of deaths due to all causes attributed to PM2.5 were 1344 in 2010 and 811 in 2014, respectively. Based on the results of the correlation test between PM2.5 and the total mortality of people over 30 for all causes, there was a significant correlation at a 99% confidence level. Conclusion: The results revealed the presence of pollution round the clock and the high impact of PM2.5 on public health in Ahvaz. Based on these results, during ten years of the study, 10,201 cases corresponding to 64.22% of all deaths from all causes were attributed to PM2.5, which is a warning for the public and officials to look at this problem, not as a temporary, but as a pervasive problem that affects every member of the society and stops the process of air pollution by taking effective measures.